Seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic, Caribbean and Dominican Republic hurricane season 2014

The 2014 hurricane season for the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean

Strong 2014 Hurricane Season predicted with a total of 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane and climate cycle Prediction Company, and the only organization that was correct in predicting the weak 2013 season, recently issued its hurricane predictions for the 2014 through 2017 seasons. CEO David Dilley, says the upcoming Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be stronger and more dangerous than last year, an about face from 2013 which saw the development and strength of tropical storm and hurricane activity suppressed by hostile upper atmospheric wind shear.

Pre-season forecasts

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane and climate cycle prediction company, recently issued its hurricane predictions for the 2014 through 2017 seasons.

CEO David Dilley, Ocala, FL, says the upcoming season will be stronger and more dangerous than last year, with 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. This will be an about face from 2013 which saw the development and strength of tropical storm and hurricane activity suppressed by hostile upper atmospheric wind shear. An average hurricane season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

In a newspaper interview Dilley said that while other weather organizations predicted a strong hurricane season for last year, GWO was the only organization that was correct in predicting a very weak 2013 hurricane season due to hostile upper atmospheric wind shear, and that the United States coast would not have a hurricane strike. As it turned out, hostile wind shear dominated the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico region during most the 2013 hurricane season.

The wind shear coupled with sand blowing off Africa and over the eastern Atlantic, stifled developing tropical systems similar to an El Nino, and was one of the key reasons for the 2013 being the third weakest hurricane season since 1956 and least active hurricane season since 2009.

Mr. Dilley says that what makes GWO a standout from other organizations is their commitment to research and development of GWO’s Climate Pulse Technology (CPT) that incorporates climate cycle mechanisms that control the rhythm of weather cycles. Research over the past 25 years has found that each of the Atlantic and Gulf coastal zones have varying weather cycles, and within each cycle, there exists smaller weather cycles which make each zone unique. Once all of the cycles are discovered, Dilley then uses the Climate Pulse Technology to accurately assess the intensity of a future hurricane season, and the probability risk for hurricane or tropical storm conditions within a prediction zone for that year.

GWO makes specific predictions for 11 U.S. coastal zones from New England to Texas, and is currently expanding their predictions to include the Philippine Islands in the western Pacific, and eventually all of the western Pacific and Caribbean regions. Prediction Zones assigned a high probability risk for a hurricane are termed “Hot Spots” for that year; GWO’s red-flag hot spot predictions for the United States have been nearly 90 percent accurate since 2006, and instrumental for long-range planning by insurance companies and other organizations.

GWO’s recent CPT model successes include the very weak 2013 hurricane season, hot spot zone predictions of Hurricane Ike (2008), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012). The prediction of Sandy, a high-impact hybrid storm was made 3 years in advance, and Irene 2 years in advance. Mr. Dilley is confident about his 2014 prediction calling for an active season (17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes). The last major hurricane to strike the U.S. was in 2005 (Wilma), but that could change in 2014.

David Dilley, a former NOAA meteorologist formed Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) in 1992 with the specific understanding that weather and climate occurs in cycles. While mankind is playing some role in climate change, David Dilley believes most climate changes are primarily attributable to weather cycles. He disputes the notion that hurricanes occur randomly and are impossible to predict. He states There are no random hurricanes, everything occurs in cycles.

2014 storm names

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2014 :

Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred

2014 Hurricane SeasonPredictions

Number of storms forecast : 17

Number of hurricanes forecast : 8

Number of storm day forecast : 64

Number of hurricane days forecast : 20

Category 3 or higher hurricane forecast : 90%

Landfall Probabilities for 2014

Highest Strike Probability:

  • 70% Louisiana and Alabama
  • 70% West Florida

Second Highest Strike Probability:

  • 60% Georgia and North Carolina

Probabilities of the affected territories

A significant focus of our recent research involves efforts to develop forecasts of the probability of hurricane landfall along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean. While we are not issuing a quantitative forecast in this early outlook, we can still provide interested readers with the climatological probabilities of landfall for various portions of the United States coastline.
Climatological strike probabilities for the 2014 hurricane season for different TC categories for the entire U.S. coastline, the Gulf Coast and the East Coast including the Florida peninsula. We also issue probabilities for various islands and landmasses in the Caribbean and in Central America.
Climatological probability (expressed in percent) of one or more land-falling tropical storms (TS), category 1-2 hurricanes (HUR), category 3-4-5 hurricanes, total hurricanes and named storms along the entire U.S. coastline, along the Gulf Coast (Regions 1-4), and along the Florida Peninsula and the East Coast (Regions 5-11). Probabilities of a tropical storm, hurricane and major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean are also provided.

These are finally probabilities that certain territories will be affected by an intense hurricane in 2013:

  • A 52% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2014. The long-term average probability is 84%.
  • For the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall is 31% (the long-term average is 61%).
  • For the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, the probability is 31% (the long-term average is 61%).
  • The team predicts the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean as 42% (average for the last century is 75%).

Contact Us

Please help us to help you. Whatever the reason, if you wish to contact us, the most efficient way is to fill this form and click Send Email.

Your Details

Sign up to receive alerts :



Add comments


Weather

Dominican Republic
& Puerto RicoThe weather live in Dominican Republic

Free Hurricane Warning

Logo Free Hurricane WarningTo register and receive hurricane alerts by sector, click here

News in Dominican Republic

Breaking news in Dominican Republic

Keep informed of what is going on in Dominican Republic, see the last breaking news here…

Beauty & Health

Our beauty section: advises to feel and look great, makeup, perfumes, jewels, fruits and plants…

Decoration & Design

Our Decoration section : Here you will find furniture and decorative objects for your house or apartment, the last trends in design world, seats, lamps, kitchen and bathroom decoration, the best brands…

Fashion & Trends

The last trends in fashion, lthe best styles, the news collections of world famous brands as Zara, Benetton, Guess, Lacoste