The tropical hurricane season 2010 in the Caribbean and Dominican Republic

The tropical hurricane season officially started on June 1st and will end on November 30th.

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Updated 9/2/10 - 11.55 a.m.

PRECAUTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS TO FOLLOW IN CASE OF A HURRICANE HERE

Hurricane Earl - Category 4

At 11 am EDT, 1500 UTC, the eye of Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 30.9 north, longitude 74.8 West. Earl is now moving toward the north near 18 mph, 30 km/hr.

A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will pass near the North Carolina Outer Banks tonight, and approach southeastern New England Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph, 220 km/hr, with higher gusts.

Earl is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. No significant change in strength is expected today, but gradual weakening should begin on Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles, 150 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles, 370 km.

Wind

Tropical storm force winds mainly in gusts could spread over San Salvador island later this morning.

Storm surge

Above normal tides in the southeastern Bahamas should subside today.

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Wave height

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Wave height scale
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ALERTS

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A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Sandy Hook New Jersey, including Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach and the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts, including Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket.

A tropical storm watch has been issued from Sandy Hook New Jersey to Woods Hole Massachusetts, including Block Island and Long Island Sound.

A tropical storm watch has been issued from north of Sagamore Beach to the mouth of the Merrimack River Massachusetts.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
- Bogue Inlet North Carolina northeastward to the North Carolina/Virginia border including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
- North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Henlopen Delaware.
- Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts, including Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
- From Cape Fear to west of Bogue Inlet North Carolina.
- From the North Carolina/Virginia border to Sandy Hook New Jersey, including Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach and the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for
- Sandy Hook New Jersey to Woods Hole Massachusetts, including Block Island and Long Island Sound.
- North of Sagamore Beach to the mouth of the Merrimack River Massachusetts.

Satellite picture of the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean
This satellite picture is offered by wunderground.com (www.wunderground.com)

Satellite picture of the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean
This satellite picture is offered by wunderground.com (www.wunderground.com)

Satellite picture of the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean
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Satellite picture of the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean
This satellite picture is offered by noaa.com (www.noaa.com)


Tropical Storm Fiona

At 11 am AST, 1500 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 24.4 north, longitude 65.8 west. Fiona is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph, 28 km/hr.

A turn toward the north is expected tonight, with a motion toward the north and then north-northeast forecast by late Friday. On the forecast track the center of Fiona is expected to pass near Bermuda late Friday or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph, 85 km/hr, with higher gusts.

Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, 185 km from the center, mainly to the east.

Satellite picture of the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean

This satellite picture is offered by wunderground.com (www.wunderground.com)

Satellite picture of the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean
This satellite picture is offered by wunderground.com (www.wunderground.com)

Satellite picture of the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean
This satellite picture is offered by wunderground.com (www.wunderground.com)

Tropical Depression Gaston

At 11 am AST, 1500 UTC, the center of Tropical Depression Gaston was located near latitude 14.0 north, longitude 38.9 west.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph, 11 km/hr, and this general motion should continue for the next couple of days.  Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, 55 km/hr, with higher gusts.

Some restrengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Satellite picture of the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean
This satellite picture is offered by wunderground.com (www.wunderground.com)

Satellite picture of the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean
This satellite picture is offered by wunderground.com (www.wunderground.com)

Satellite picture of the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean
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Showers and thunderstorms - Probability 10%

Showers and thunderstorms, associated with a vigorous tropical wave, are located a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.

Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves westward near 10 mph.

There is a low chance, 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Sector Caribbean, Atlantic and Central America

Map and satellite animation of Dominican Republic
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Hurricane’s Boulevard

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Satellite picture of the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean
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Current Sea Surface Temperature Analysis

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2010 Storm Archive

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2009 Storm Archive

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Seasonal forecasts for 2010 Hurricane Season

2010 Hurricane Season

For the 2010 season, Klotzbach and Gray expect an above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2010 and anticipate an above-average probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. In terms of numbers, they forecast :

-11 - 16 named storms
-
6 - 8 hurricanes
-3 - 5 major hurricanes

The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year’s hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone.
NOAA is forecasting a very active and possibly hyperactive season, and Dr. Bill Gray has said he expects a hell of a year.
However, our ability to forecast hurricane activity months in advance is limited, and we don’t yet know how the large scale weather patterns like the Bermuda High will set up during the peak part of hurricane season. In particular, we very much doubt that we are in for a repeat of the unprecedented violence of the Hurricane Season of 2005, with its 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes.
While sea surface temperatures are currently warmer this year than in 2005, that year featured some very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, with a very strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., record drought in the Amazon, and very low surface pressures over the Atlantic. A repeat of 2005’s weather patterns is unlikely, though we can expect we will get at least four major hurricanes this year.

Hurricanes for 2010

Alex

Bonnie

Colin

Danielle

Earl

Fiona

Gaston

Hermine

Igor

Julia

Karl

Lisa

Matthew

Nicole

Otto

Paula

Richard

Shary

Tomas

Virginie

Walter

june 26 - july 2

july 23 to 25

august 4 to 9

august 23 to 31

august 28 - …

august 31 - …

september 2 - …

Cyclones and Hurricanes history in Dominican Republic, from 1615 till…

Hurricanes history

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Saffir Simpson Scale of winds

Category 1 Hurricane - 119–153 km/h

No significant structural damage to building structures; however, they can topple unanchored mobile homes, as well as uproot or snap trees. Poorly attached roof shingles or tiles can blow off. Coastal flooding and pier damage are often associated with Category 1 storms.

Category 2 Hurricane - 154–177 km/h

Storms of Category 2 are strong enough that they can lift a house, and inflict damage upon poorly constructed doors and windows. Vegetation, poorly constructed signs, and piers can receive considerable damage. Mobile homes, whether anchored or not, are typically damaged, and many manufactured homes also suffer structural damage.

Category 3 Hurricane - 178–209 km/h

These storms can cause some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings, particularly those of wood frame or manufactured materials with minor curtainwall failures. Buildings that lack a solid foundation, such as mobile homes, are usually destroyed, and gable-end roofs are peeled off. Manufactured homes usually sustain severe and irreparable damage.

Category 4 Hurricane - 210–249 km/h

Category 4 hurricanes tend to produce more extensive curtainwall failures, with some complete roof structural failure on small residences. Heavy, irreparable damage and near complete destruction of gas station canopies and other wide span overhang type structures are common. Mobile and manufactured homes are leveled. These storms cause extensive beach erosion, while terrain may be flooded far inland.

Category 5 Hurricane - More than 250 km/h

These storms cause complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings, and some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Collapse of many wide-span roofs and walls, especially those with no interior supports, is common. Very heavy and irreparable damage to many wood frame structures and total destruction to mobile/manufactured homes is prevalent. Only a few types of structures are capable of surviving intact

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