Seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic, Caribbean and Dominican hurricane season 2010

The 2010 hurricane season for the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean

US meteorologists say they expect an above-average number of Atlantic basin hurricanes to develop during next year’s hurricane season

The CSU hurricane forecast team also predicts a 64 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010. The long-term average probability is 52 percent.
A 40 percent probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, and along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas. The long-term average for both areas is about 30 percent.

2010 storm names

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2010 :

Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie, Walter

Predictions

Named Storms : 20

Named Hurricanes : 9

Named Storm Days : 90

Hurricane Days : 40

Intense Hurricanes : 5

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity : 150

The conditions of observation

“We have no plausible physical reasons for believing that Atlantic hurricane frequency or intensity will change significantly if global ocean temperatures were to continue to rise, ” the team says. They point to the fact that during the period from 1945 – 1969 when temperatures were cooler, more major hurricanes were experienced than in the warmer period from 1970 to 1994. The team also notes that the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes was greater in the first half of the 20th century than the second half through 2009.

Landfall Probabilities for 2010

For the 2010 season, Klotzbach and Gray expect an “above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2010 and anticipate an above-average probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.” In terms of numbers, they forecast 11 - 16 named storms, 6 - 8 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger).

An average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.

Probabilities of the affected territories

These are finally probabilities that certain territories will be affected by an intense hurricane in 2009:

• American Coasts (all the Mexican border in Canada): 64% (Category 3-4-5)
• Atlantic American Coasts (of the south of Florida in Canada): 40% (Category 3-4-5)
• American Coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (Texas - Florida): 40% (Category 3-4-5)
• Caribbean and the Bahamas : 53%

Weather

Dominican Republic
& Puerto Rico

Cyclones and Hurricanes history in Dominican Republic, from 1615 till…